I’ll begin this post with an apology. I’m sorry to everyone who reads my blog. I got in a rut the last few weeks, simple as that. My tendinitis flared up and instead of getting back to my blog when that passed I got lazy and focused on schoolwork and watching movies. I’ll try to get back to posting at a regular rate. For now, here are my final oscar predictions. I’ve listed the nominees in each category and followed up with my thoughts on what will win, what could win, what should win, and what should have been nominated.
I also challenge everyone to post their own predictions in the comments. See if you can outguess me!
Best Picture
The nominees are:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
I firmly believe The Hurt Locker has this one sealed up. Yes, there has been some backlash the last two weeks, but I think most voters had probably already sent in their ballots by the time the bad press hit. I feel certain that The Hurt Locker is too well loved to get a low vote count. If anything could spoil it, I’m guessing it’ll be Avatar, but Inglourious Basterds and Up have a lot of love as well. We’ll find out how it turns out tomorrow night.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Avatar
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Should’ve been here: The Cove
Best Director
The nominees are:
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
This is Kathryn Bigelow’s to lose. The DGA winner goes on to win the Oscar 95% of the time, so there’s little chance she won’t come out as the victor.
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow
Could win: James Cameron
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should’ve been here: Michael Haneke, “The White Ribbon”
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The nominees are:
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
The consensus seems to be that it’s Jeff Bridges’ “time.” Considering his performance in Crazy Heart is one of the best of his career, it looks like he has an easy win. If he somehow DOESN’T win it’d probably go to either Jeremy Renner or Colin Firth.
Will win: Jeff Bridges
Could win: Jeremy Renner
Should win: Jeff Bridges
Should’ve been here: Sam Rockwell, “Moon”
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The nominees are:
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
I’m going out on a limb with this category. Nearly everyone thinks Sandra Bullock will win, and she probably will. But most years there is at least one surprise in the acting categories, and this category has the most competition. If there is a surprise, I’m guessing that there will be a split in votes between Bollock and Streep, allowing Mulligan or Sidibe to take the award. I feel that Sidibe gave the better performance so I’ll go with her.
Will win: Gabourey Sidibe
Could win: Sandra Bullock
Should win: Gabourey Sidibe
Should’ve been here: Abbie Cornish, “Bright Star”
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The nominees are:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelon, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
This is one of the most “locked” categories this year. Christoph Waltz should and will win. His closest competition is probably Harrelson, but I don’t see any surprises taking place here.
Will win: Christoph Waltz
Could win: Woody Harrelson
Should win: Christoph Waltz
Should’ve been here: Anthony Mackie, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The nominees are:
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Even more “locked” than Supporting Actor. Mo’Nique has won nearly every award prior to the Oscars. The other nominees are simply at a lower level than her performance wise.
Will win: Mo’Nique
Could win: Anna Kendrick
Should win: Mo’Nique
Should’ve been here: Samantha Morton, “The Messenger”
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees are:
“District 9”
“An Education”
“In the Loop”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”
I wish In the Loop had a chance at winning here, but I doubt many voters saw it. Up in the Air is the favourite to win and will likely do so easily.
Will win: Up in the Air
Could win: Precious
Should win: In the Loop
Should’ve been here: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are:
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
One of the tougher categories to call. It seems to be a close race between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. I’ve been going back and forth all week, but I think I’ll go with The Hurt Locker. I’m thinking that if The Hurt Locker takes Best Picture and Director, then it’ll likely take a few other smaller awards. Tarantino is a popular guy though and actors love his dialogue. I don’t know.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Inglourious Basterds
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Should’ve been here: (500) Days of Summer
Best Animated Feature Film
The nominees are:
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”
“Up”
Does anything stand a chance against Up? I don’t think so. Any other year I would love to see Fox, Coraline or Kells take it, but Up is the clear favourite of the nominees.
Will win: Up
Could win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Should win: Up
Should’ve been here: Ponyo
Best Film Editing
The nominees are:
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
This is one of several battles for tech awards between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. The Film Editing award quite often goes to the Best Picture winner, so I’m going with The Hurt Locker. Inglourious Basterds might have an outside chance as well.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Avatar
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Should’ve been here: Star Trek
Best Cinematography
The nominees are:
“Avatar”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“The Hurt Locker”
“The White Ribbon”
This award usually goes to pretty films that are traditionally made. Unfortunately none of these films are really “traditional” and therefore I see any of them winning. Avatar is the prettiest, so that’s my guess.
Will win: Avatar
Could win: Inglourious Basterds
Should win: The White Ribbon
Should’ve been here: Bright Star
Best Art Direction
The nominees are:
“Avatar”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“The Young Victoria”
Avatar stands out way above the rest to me. It gets my vote.
Will win: Avatar
Could win: Sherlock Holmes
Should win: Avatar
Should’ve been here: Public Enemies
Best Costume Design
The nominees are:
“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria”
The academy has give this award to costume dramas four years in a row. The Young Victoria wins, despite more deserving films in the category.
Will win: The Young Victoria
Could win: Coco Before Chanel
Should win: Bright Star
Should’ve been here: Inglourious Basterds
Best Makeup
The nominees are:
“Il Divo”
“Star Trek”
“The Young Victoria”
Star Trek, because they’ll want to reward it with something. The Young Victoria’s makeup was mostly hair styling and I doubt many voters bothered to watch Il Divo.
Will win: Star Trek
Could win: The Young Victoria
Should win: Star Trek
Should’ve been here: Drag Me to Hell
Best Music: Original Score
The nominees are:
James Horner, “Avatar”
Alexandre Desplat, “Fantastic Mr. Fox”
Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders, “The Hurt Locker”
Hans Zimmer, “Sherlock Holmes”
Michael Giacchino, “Up”
I think it’s between Avatar and Up. James Horner has won before and Avatar’s score, while good, is almost a retread of his previous work. I’m going with Michael Giacchino. He is getting incredibly popular thanks to his consistantly awesome work. Besides, he also did strong work for Star Trek and his music in the opening montage of Up stands out above everything else that came out last year musically.
Will win: Up
Could win: Avatar
Should win: Up
Should’ve been here: The Informant!
Best Music: Original Song
The nominees are:
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36″
“Take it All” from “Nine”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Nine was a commercial and critical failure, nobody knows what Paris 36 is, and The Princess and the Frog will likely cancel itself out. Crazy Heart wins easily. It doesn’t hurt that it’s also the best song of the bunch.
Will win: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Could win: “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
Should win: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Should’ve been here: You’ve Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger from “An Education”
Best Sound Editing
The nominees are:
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
This award usually goes to blockbuster action films. Avatar definitely fits the bill.
Will win: Avatar
Could win: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Avatar
Should’ve been here: Watchmen
Best Sound Mixing
The nominees are:
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”
Avatar will probably win this too, but I have a feeling that voters will split the sound categories by voting for the best picture favourite. It wouldn’t be the first time as Slumdog Millionaire beat out favoured films in this category last year.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Avatar
Should win: Avatar
Should’ve been here: Drag Me to Hell
Best Visual Effects
The nominees are:
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”
Do I even need to discuss this category. I have nothing against District 9 and Star Trek’s strong visual effects work, but Avatar makes everything else pale in comparison.
Will win: Avatar
Could win: haha, yeah right. I guess Star Trek would probably come in a distant second.
Should win: Avatar
Should’ve been here: Coraline
Best Foreign Language Film
The nominees are:
“Ajami” (Israel)
“The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru)
“A Prophet” (France)
“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)
The White Ribbon and A Prophet are the most popular films nominated, but the Academy quite often goes with baity foreign films nobody has heard of. The Argentina film is a crime drama with a story that spans dozens of years. Sounds like the kind of film voters would go for.
Will win: The Secret in Their Eyes
Could win: A Prophet
Should win: The White Ribbon
Should’ve been here: Sin Nombre
Best Documentary Feature
The nominees are:
“Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country”
“The Cove”
“Food, Inc.”
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
“Which Way Home”
I’ve only seen The Cove, which was one of my favourite films of the year. It was a huge critical hit that is filled with emotional force so I think it’ll probably win. From what I’ve heard of the other nominees, Food Inc is another favourite, and Which Way Home was a surprisingly strong film.
Will win: The Cove
Could win: Which Way Home
Should win: The Cove
Should’ve been here: It Might Get Loud
Best Documentary Short
The nominees are:
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
“The Last Campaign of Booth Gardener”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Music by Prudence”
“Rabbit a la Berlin”
It’s impossible for me to watch the short films (aside from the animated ones), so all I have to go on is what I’ve read online. I think emotional films probably have the best chance in this category, so China’s Unnatural Disaster or The Last Truck seem like the best choices.
Will win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Could win: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Should win: Haven’t seen any of them, so no comment
Should’ve been here: see above
Best Short Film: Live Action
The nominees are:
“The Door”
“Instead of Abracadabra”
“Kavi”
“Miracle Fish”
“The New Tenants”
I’ve only seen Miracle Fish and it left me cold. From what I’ve read The Door is a very technically well made film that tells an emotionally charged story, so that’s my choice.
Will win: The Door
Could win: The New Tenants
Should win: I’ve only seen Miracle Fish, and I didn’t much care for it
Should’ve been here: No opinion
Best Short Film: Animated
The nominees are:
“French Roast”
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty”
“The Lady and the Reaper”
“Logorama”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death”
As far as I’m concerned The Cat Piano should’ve been nominated and won this, but what can I do? The Wallace & Gromit short is the clear favourite considering Nick Park has won 3 out of 4 times for W&G films. I can’t help but wonder if that means they’ll be tired of giving him awards, but in the end I’m sticking his film as the winner. Logorama could be a spoiler, but I think it might be to vulgar for the academy.
Will win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Could win: Logorama
Should win: The Lady and the Reaper
Should’ve been here: The Cat Piano
